I'm not certain that effective learning would come to a halt merely due to the omission of technology tools in the classroom. However, 21st century skills would be severely lacking and yes, that could affect businesses depending on graduates armed with those skills.
My own experience tells me that the students are learning the technology without the teachers, classrooms and skills. They learn it at home, at their friends' houses, watching TV and YouTube on someone else's computer. They learn quickly how to SMS and update a MySpace status page.
No, I don't think learning comes to a halt. But the irrelevancy of the traditional brick and mortar classroom becomes apparent in schools that are slow to adopt the new tools and strategies for implementation. Technology in schools is an issue that affects the educational institution more than the society in which it is merging so quickly. The behemoth institution is struggling to adapt and adopt for its own survival.
There is little doubt the next generation will make full use of technology with or without schools. I introduced a Technology Camp to 90+ K6 students who did not own computers at home. Within 4 weeks, they had recorded podcasts, edited movies, built webpages, and blogged about some personal interest. Once one student figured out what to do, they helped their neighbor and the assistance spread like wildfire. As a teacher, I had more trouble keeping up than getting them to catch up.
My suspicion is that the educational community is crying for Educational Technologists because they want to avoid their own extinction and they need us to bring relevance back to the system. Perhaps we will. Or perhaps we will foment the system's transformation altogether. I expect the latter is the more viable option. (post 9/28/09)